Polymarket’s Explosive Growth and Trading Limitations in Prediction Markets

Polymarket, a prediction market platform on Polygon, has emerged as a critical traffic and fee generator for the network. Its role in accurately reflecting voter sentiment during the November 2024 U.S. presidential election—where traders backed Donald TRUMP against mainstream media narratives—highlighted its utility. As of October 8, the platform hosted over 1.3 million active traders across 46,600 markets, with 27.3 million positions closed. The largest single trader netted $1.2 million, while another lost $1.1 million.

Trading volume on Polymarket surged tenfold year-over-year in 2025, with projections suggesting the prediction market could reach $153 billion by 2035. This growth underscores the need for continuous innovation, particularly in trading mechanics. Currently, users are limited to binary "yes" or "no" bets on events like the New York City Mayoral Election, which generated $133 million in volume alone. The absence of nuanced trading options remains a key constraint.